The Electrical Load Forecasting Base on an Optimal Selection Method of Multiple Models in DSM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3991/ijoe.v11i8.4882Keywords:
Optimal selection method, Load forecasting, Demand Side Management (DSM), Low-voltage sideAbstract
Electrical load forecasting plays a key role in energy scheduling and planning. It is a challenge to predict electric load accurately due to the versatility of electrical loads and the vast number of users in DSM of low-voltage side. Most of electrical load forecasting research focused on single model prediction or combination model prediction, which cannot get the optimal performance for some cases. Therefore, how to gather maximum optimal information from various different models is a key point in load forecasting and analysis. In this paper, an optimal selection method of multiple models for electrical load forecasting is studied. This method overcomes the shortcoming of unitary model, such as the instability and poor accuracy in some cases. To evaluate the forecast performance, a practical case is studied based on the intelligent electricity management system, which is presented by Wuhan University. It can be seen that the prediction error of the forecasting models can be calculated automatically and final optimum model can be obtained by optimum seeking software platform.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The submitting author warrants that the submission is original and that she/he is the author of the submission together with the named co-authors; to the extend the submission incorporates text passages, figures, data or other material from the work of others, the submitting author has obtained any necessary permission.
Articles in this journal are published under the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC-BY What does this mean?). This is to get more legal certainty about what readers can do with published articles, and thus a wider dissemination and archiving, which in turn makes publishing with this journal more valuable for you, the authors.
By submitting an article the author grants to this journal the non-exclusive right to publish it. The author retains the copyright and the publishing rights for his article without any restrictions.