Modeling of Influence of Climate Change Character on the Territory of the Cryolithozone on the Value of Risks for the Road Network

Authors

  • Yury Vasilievich Trofimenko Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Leningradsky avenue, 64, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125319
  • Anatoly Nikolaevich Yakubovich Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Leningradsky avenue, 64, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125319
  • Irina Anatolievna Yakubovich Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Leningradsky avenue, 64, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125319
  • Elena Vldimirovna Shashina Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Leningradsky avenue, 64, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125319

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3991/ijoe.v16i07.14557

Keywords:

climate change, road network, cryolithozone, modeling, soil thawing, climate risks

Abstract


The level of climate risks is proposed to be estimated by the amount of thawing soil settlement in the formation of automobile roads, corresponding to the accepted scenario of the climate change. An updated algorithm is presented, according to which the average risk assessment for a 4-year period is divided into a risk assessment for individual years. Calculations performed for the climatic conditions of Yakutsk and Urengoy establish a significant dependence of the predicted risk on the warming pattern. The level of risk predicted when the average annual air temperature increases by 2 degrees is estimated as average (up to 526 points on a 1000-point scale). The most appropriate method of reducing this risk is to perform timely repairs to bring the road to the standard technical and operational condition without the use of special technologies for regulating the temperature regime of soil.

Author Biographies

Yury Vasilievich Trofimenko, Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Leningradsky avenue, 64, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125319

Technosphere Safety Chair, head, full professor

Anatoly Nikolaevich Yakubovich, Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Leningradsky avenue, 64, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125319

Operation and Servicing of Motor Vehicles Chair, full professor

Irina Anatolievna Yakubovich, Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Leningradsky avenue, 64, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125319

Operation and Servicing of Motor Vehicles Chair, full professor

Elena Vldimirovna Shashina, Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Leningradsky avenue, 64, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125319

Technosphere Safety Chair, assistant professor

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Published

2020-06-19

How to Cite

Trofimenko, Y. V., Yakubovich, A. N., Yakubovich, I. A., & Shashina, E. V. (2020). Modeling of Influence of Climate Change Character on the Territory of the Cryolithozone on the Value of Risks for the Road Network. International Journal of Online and Biomedical Engineering (iJOE), 16(07), pp. 65–74. https://doi.org/10.3991/ijoe.v16i07.14557

Issue

Vol. 16 No. 07 (2020)

Section

Papers

License

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