Decision Framework Focused on Missing-Data Alarms in Healthcare
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3991/ijoe.v22i07.61659Keywords:
missing data, risk-targeted calibration, EVSI, decision support, glucose alarms, healthcare time seriesAbstract
In healthcare, missing data is common. Missing information can arise for various reasons, such as timing and synchronization issues, incorrect reporting, and connection loss or incorrect data-flow configuration. Time plays a crucial role in longitudinal clinical data. Many studies have focused on minimizing the root mean squared error (RMSE) of imputed missing data. However, in clinical practice, the primary goal is to make safe decisions by minimizing the risk of missing key events. The goal is not to reconstruct accurate missing data but to determine if the existing data is sufficient to support the detection of critical events. The predictive model combines a probabilistic event definition, empirical risk, calibrated thresholds for risk-targeted threshold calibration, a lightweight counterfactual glucose sampler, and the expected value of sample information (EVSI). The EVSI policy does not always request a confirmatory measurement. It is used only when the expected reduction in decision burden is higher than the additional delay. Results show an improved balance of risk and burden when compared to both non-query scenarios and simpler baseline querying strategies. The contribution of this work is not a new state-of-the-art data imputation system but a clinically interpretable decision layer for alarm management under missing data scenarios.
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