Educational Planning Based on Prospective Scenarios in Distance Education

Abstract

This study aims to analyze, within the realm of distance education, the contributions of the method for the construction and analysis of prospective scenarios applied to educational planning, proposed by Juares Thiesen. One of the approaches and techniques used by organizations to envision and design the long-term reality, which can contribute to overcome planning difficulties in distance education, are Prospective Studies and Scenario Building. The study, which was conducted by quantitative and qualitative approaches, was developed by the technical of research-action, organized into five stages: exploration, adaptation, implementation, analysis, and results. The work foresees the application of a unique method in real situation, through workshops. The verification of consistency and analysis of contributions of the method were conducted by questionnaire and interview at a public institution of higher education. The study highlights the importance of the method for construction and analysis of prospective scenarios in distance education and demonstrates how planning based on future scenarios contributes to the generation of an effective strategy, extrapolating trends and considering the future aspects and the uncertainties. It also represents a technical and scientific contribution, because in addition to investigating the application of a unique method, it presents the specificities and needs of its application for distance education.